6DuckLearn Skills

prioritize assumptions

Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.

product-management Tags: pm-product-discovery, product-management, pm-skills

Prioritize Assumptions

Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.

Context

You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.

Domain Context

ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.

Instructions

The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:

  1. For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:

    • Impact: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
    • Risk: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort

  2. Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:

    • Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
    • High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
    • Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
    • High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it

  3. For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:

    • Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
    • Measures actual behavior, not opinions
    • Has a clear success metric and threshold

  4. Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.

Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.

Further Reading

Related skills

  • interview script — Create a structured customer interview script with JTBD probing questions, warm-up, core exploration, and wrap-up sections. Follows The Mom Test principles — no leading questions, no pitching, focus on past behavior. Use when preparing for user interviews, creating interview guides, or planning discovery research.
  • analyze feature requests — Analyze and prioritize a list of feature requests by theme, strategic alignment, impact, effort, and risk. Use when reviewing customer feature requests, triaging a backlog, or making prioritization decisions.
  • brainstorm experiments existing — Design experiments to test assumptions for an existing product — prototypes, A/B tests, spikes, and other low-effort validation methods. Use when validating assumptions, testing feature ideas cheaply, or planning product experiments.
  • brainstorm experiments new — Design lean startup experiments (pretotypes) for a new product. Creates XYZ hypotheses and suggests low-effort validation methods like landing pages, explainer videos, and pre-orders. Use when validating a new product idea, creating pretotypes, or testing market demand.
  • brainstorm ideas existing — Brainstorm product ideas for an existing product using multi-perspective ideation from PM, Designer, and Engineer viewpoints. Use when generating new feature ideas, brainstorming solutions for an identified opportunity, or ideating with a product trio.
  • brainstorm ideas new — Brainstorm feature ideas for a new product in initial discovery from PM, Designer, and Engineer perspectives. Use when starting product discovery for a new product, exploring features for a startup idea, or doing initial ideation.