6DuckLearn Skills

identify assumptions new

Identify risky assumptions for a new product idea across 8 risk categories including Go-to-Market, Strategy, and Team. Use when evaluating startup risks, assessing a new product concept, or mapping assumptions for a new venture.

product-management Tags: pm-product-discovery, product-management, pm-skills

Identify Assumptions (New Product)

Comprehensive risk identification across 8 categories — extending the 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits) with Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team risks that are critical for new products.

Context

You are evaluating assumptions for a new product: $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides files (business plans, research), read them first.

Domain Context

The 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits): Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility.

For new products, extend to 8 risk categories. Good teams assume at least three-quarters of their ideas won't perform as they hope.

Instructions

The user will describe the product concept, target segment, and feature idea. Work through these steps:

  1. Think from three perspectives about why this product might fail:

    • Product Manager: Market demand, willingness to pay, competitive landscape
    • Designer: First-time user experience, onboarding, engagement
    • Engineer: Build vs. buy decisions, scalability, technical debt

  2. Identify assumptions across 8 risk categories:

    • Value: Will it create value for customers? Will they keep using it?
    • Usability: Will people figure out how to use it? Can we onboard them fast enough? Will it increase cognitive load?
    • Viability: Can we sell/monetize/finance it? Is it worth the cost? Can we support customers and help them succeed? Can we scale? Will it be compliant?
    • Feasibility: Can we do it with the current technology? Is this integration possible? Can it be efficient? Can we scale it?
    • Ethics: Should we do it at all? Are there any ethical considerations? Will it pose a risk for our customers?
    • Go-to-Market (especially critical for new products): Can we market it? Do we have the required channels? Can we convince customers to try it? Is this the right messaging for this channel? Is this the right time? Is this the right way to launch it?
    • Strategy & Objectives: What are our assumptions? Can others copy our strategy? Have we considered political, economic, legal, technological, and environmental factors? Are those the best problems to solve?
    • Team: How well will the team work together? Do we have the right people? Do we have the right tools? Will the entire team stay with us long enough?

  3. For each assumption, rate confidence and suggest a test.

Think step by step. Save as markdown.

Further Reading

Related skills

  • interview script — Create a structured customer interview script with JTBD probing questions, warm-up, core exploration, and wrap-up sections. Follows The Mom Test principles — no leading questions, no pitching, focus on past behavior. Use when preparing for user interviews, creating interview guides, or planning discovery research.
  • analyze feature requests — Analyze and prioritize a list of feature requests by theme, strategic alignment, impact, effort, and risk. Use when reviewing customer feature requests, triaging a backlog, or making prioritization decisions.
  • brainstorm experiments existing — Design experiments to test assumptions for an existing product — prototypes, A/B tests, spikes, and other low-effort validation methods. Use when validating assumptions, testing feature ideas cheaply, or planning product experiments.
  • brainstorm experiments new — Design lean startup experiments (pretotypes) for a new product. Creates XYZ hypotheses and suggests low-effort validation methods like landing pages, explainer videos, and pre-orders. Use when validating a new product idea, creating pretotypes, or testing market demand.
  • brainstorm ideas existing — Brainstorm product ideas for an existing product using multi-perspective ideation from PM, Designer, and Engineer viewpoints. Use when generating new feature ideas, brainstorming solutions for an identified opportunity, or ideating with a product trio.
  • brainstorm ideas new — Brainstorm feature ideas for a new product in initial discovery from PM, Designer, and Engineer perspectives. Use when starting product discovery for a new product, exploring features for a startup idea, or doing initial ideation.