# prioritize assumptions
## Metadata

- Canonical URL: https://6ducklearn.com/skills/prioritize-assumptions/
- Markdown URL: https://6ducklearn.com/skills/prioritize-assumptions/index.md
- Product: skills
- Category: product-management
- Tags: pm-product-discovery, product-management, pm-skills
- Updated: 2026-07-14T03:00:00.357428+00:00
## Summary
Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.
## Content
## Prioritize Assumptions

Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.

### Context

You are helping prioritize assumptions for **$ARGUMENTS**.

If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.

### Domain Context

**ICE** works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). **RICE** splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the `prioritization-frameworks` skill for full formulas and templates.

### Instructions

The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:

1. **For each assumption**, evaluate two dimensions:
   - **Impact**: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
   - **Risk**: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort

2. **Categorize each assumption** using the Impact × Risk matrix:
   - **Low Impact, Low Risk** → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
   - **High Impact, Low Risk** → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
   - **Low Impact, High Risk** → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
   - **High Impact, High Risk** → Design an experiment to test it

3. **For each assumption requiring testing**, suggest an experiment that:
   - Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
   - Measures actual behavior, not opinions
   - Has a clear success metric and threshold

4. **Present results** as a prioritized matrix or table.

Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.

---

### Further Reading

- [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas)
- [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)

## Related Skills

- [interview script](https://6ducklearn.com/skills/interview-script/index.md): Create a structured customer interview script with JTBD probing questions, warm-up, core exploration, and wrap-up sections. Follows The Mom Test principles — no leading questions, no pitching, focus on past behavior. Use when preparing for user interviews, creating interview guides, or planning discovery research.
- [analyze feature requests](https://6ducklearn.com/skills/analyze-feature-requests/index.md): Analyze and prioritize a list of feature requests by theme, strategic alignment, impact, effort, and risk. Use when reviewing customer feature requests, triaging a backlog, or making prioritization decisions.
- [brainstorm experiments existing](https://6ducklearn.com/skills/brainstorm-experiments-existing/index.md): Design experiments to test assumptions for an existing product — prototypes, A/B tests, spikes, and other low-effort validation methods. Use when validating assumptions, testing feature ideas cheaply, or planning product experiments.
- [brainstorm experiments new](https://6ducklearn.com/skills/brainstorm-experiments-new/index.md): Design lean startup experiments (pretotypes) for a new product. Creates XYZ hypotheses and suggests low-effort validation methods like landing pages, explainer videos, and pre-orders. Use when validating a new product idea, creating pretotypes, or testing market demand.
- [brainstorm ideas existing](https://6ducklearn.com/skills/brainstorm-ideas-existing/index.md): Brainstorm product ideas for an existing product using multi-perspective ideation from PM, Designer, and Engineer viewpoints. Use when generating new feature ideas, brainstorming solutions for an identified opportunity, or ideating with a product trio.
- [brainstorm ideas new](https://6ducklearn.com/skills/brainstorm-ideas-new/index.md): Brainstorm feature ideas for a new product in initial discovery from PM, Designer, and Engineer perspectives. Use when starting product discovery for a new product, exploring features for a startup idea, or doing initial ideation.